Brazilian Elections 2019 - Second Round
I. War communication
The communication ways are always the key instruments to get success in an election. Basically, first was the radio, after came the radio more the television, and now, these two plus the Internet.
To an efficient mass communication it is need not only control the means, the instrument, but also have a psychological approach of marketing. For example, if we think that the word “no” sounds many times for the son, in relation to the father, as a “yes”, because we have a natural impulse to broke rules when we grow up, then the #EleNão (in english #HeNot), is a masterpiece of marketing in favor of He, the father, or Bolsonaro. If #HeNot THEN the result in practice is vote in Bolsonaro.
The economic, political and moral crisis in Brazil is the perfect environment to the origin of a father that put order in the house. Brazilians wants a leader to take out the people of this mess.
So we have the correct message to the correct moment. Very efficient marketing approach. And when we see the stars of a big television group, mainly women, saying #HeNot, it is evident that the big media is at his side.
In this 2018 political disputes, the Election is won in the Internet, by the psychological manipulation made, mainly, by social medias. The new way to do the metric of voting researches is observing the behavior of Internet user in the social medias and services like YouTube. This is why it is important to know who controls the Internet service companies to understand the real forces in this political war.
The profiling permits the use of messages psychologically directed. In some situations, it is possible realize that the Artificial Intelligence of the Internet Bots can understand cinism, sarcasm and humor by measuring the likes of persons with a determined political profile. Who likes this? Ask the algorithm. What is problematic in this mechanism is that we establish a perpetual return in the meaning that who likes Bolsonaro only see things related to him, and who likes Haddad only see things related to his side. It is a bubble resulted by, and that causes, the bi-polarization that take the debates to the extreme – what, yes, it is a way to grow in political culture.
Is the Political death with the profiling activity? I do not believe – lets talk on a new age for Politics in Brazil. From here for the future, it is important to know how Internet works? How an Internet Protocol (IP) can be used to make a profiling of the citizens? How an post-election can be manipulated to the acceptance of the people by the new government? All are important questions now, in Brazil and in the World.
With the social medias, the flocking behavior, of the less rational critical minds, makes difficult avoid the sanctification of a person. Examples of rational ways to attack Bolsonaro marketing approach are with phrases like: “Only the military can acquire the peace, only they gives the life by the State”, “Only the military are patriots, only them gives the life for the State”. This because Brazilian people do not learned to like of war like other nations did. But these sentences not works well when we are dealing with affects, passion, instead of rationality. In this meaning of working with emotions of the electors, maybe it is more efficient the #BolsonaroIsNotHitler or #BolsonaroNoIsHitler (#BolsonaroNãoÉHitler); or a trying of breaking his image of good guy - instead of “The mith” (#omito), it is possible say “A mith” (#ummito). The rhetoric maximum is: whom talks with emotion convince more.
At the side of Bolsonaro, the political marketing is sophisticated. It is possible to see soft messages in innocent videos, like a video in which the father does a lot for his daughter in the day-to-day live, and at the end finish with #herofather (#paiheroi). It is a way to talk on politics without talk on politics.
We also can say that there is a timing in the mass marketing approach based on a psychological time of the electors in political conflict situations. It is harder to change the vote of someone in the begging or in the end of the dispute?
But all these approaches survives if they are not sent to the electors in a constant and mass way? Of course not. This is why a possible solution to the present political environment in the Internet Age is an External Control Council for Content Complain in Social Network Companies.
II. Judicial Power in Brazil: secondary forces or the first one?
The Justice wants to maintain the credibility of the voting system before the day 28th October 2018, that is the day of the election.
But the movement of the power is more complex. First, it was necessary dominates the Judiciary Power, caging the principal person that can be an strong opposition to Bolsonaro, that is Lula. This happened. Lula in prison is the first step to open a bigger way to Bolsonaro pass, observing that his movement concerning this election starts much before, with travels around Brazil.
After take off Lula, it is easer makes the people believe in Bolsonaro as the new father, and, by consequence, take the power.
But at the end, all come back to the Judiciary: mainly in respect to human rights issues.
III. Moral Issues and World Radicalization: fake individualism?
Since the visits to USA of the Brazilian Judge who starts throwing Lula out of the game, until the control power headquarters of the IT companies, it is evident that there is an external influence in Brazil.
It is also possible observes the movements of political leaders like Trump, Putin, Viktor Orbán, Xi Jinping, Kim Jong-un, that are strong persons that concentrate the powers in their hands, being the figures of the good leaders, the leaders as good fathers.
By one side, the concentration makes a most efficient State in many aspects, but by the other side, brings fear exactly because the concentration of power.
And here is when violence arrives – or at least the fear of violence. The first cause to a State be a State is to maintain peace among its constitutive members, the citizens. Hobbes already taught us. So security is a basic issue. In Brazil, one of the basic campaign promise of Bolsonaro is to try give to citizens the right to have a gun.
So one person said: “I can not wait to have, freely and legally, the possession of a gun in this country. Enough of being a lamb of the State. Business is self-defense. With Bolsonaro, does the plebiscite pass, according to the popular will of having guns? Could the good citizen finally be armed?” But the answer can be: Have the right to have a gun is a good cause, but it's unlikely in practice, because the State have afraid that opponents from the people will rebel against.
It is interesting observes that Bolsonaro, in many situations, talked on the exclusion of unlawfulness as a solution to the police be more protected against accusations of abuse of authority.
At this point we also can remember of violence as education. Many people thinks that the use of force in the education of children can maintain better degree of civilization among adults. But the question here is: when a teacher or a father teaches by the fear, it is only the professor or the father turns their back, and the person will disobey.
Right of guns for the people (really or only promises?), rights for a more free action of the police force, educational process that considers violence as an effective mean. All of this are perspectives that, when put in the extreme, for sure that can generate fear in the population. And as we can see in the Haddad’s campaign (the oppositor of Bolsolnaro), these arguments was used, as such as Bolsonaro used the arguments that Brazil will become a Venezuela by the international communism that try to control the country based on entities like Foro de São Paulo and URSAL, both international organizations in Latam.
We can say that is more than talk of both sides, rightist against leftist. After all, it is possible to remember of USSR of Stalin as a totalitarian regime. Concerning to economy it is possible accuses the excessive welfare State as well as the slave regime for labor rights.
Lets comeback to the origin of the problem: the individualism. The first question is: why Cristianism tradition of help others can be wrong?
Ayn Rand can help us to find an answer when she say that the Cristian principle of love all is not real. It is impossible to love all because we love very specific persons, and by our self-interest. But she goes further and say that the real individualism also is against the idea of give the life by the State. Exist two forms of altruism that shall be attacked: by one of them you donate yourself to others, and by other, you donate yourself by the State. Both forms are fake individualism, being the last one what we call fascism.
What is fascism?
Well, exist persons, and historical moments, that are genocidal. There is a crime of genocide exactly because this kind of fact exist. It is a hygienist mentality of extermination of what is different (of what the elite considers the worst, the slag, the beings to be swept away from humanity). The revolution 4.0 helps this process in a meaning, because makes human-work-manship easily replaceable. Not permit the people have guns permits the same – in matter of fact, this is the big blow.
So, considering the economic, moral and political crises in Brazil, as well as the movement of international leaders (e.g. USA leaving the Paris Agreement, leaving nuclear agreements, visiting North Korea, Russia with the military exercise of Vostok, UK and the Brexit issues, etc), it is possible to say the, in matter of fact, Brazilians need a father, a good father. Bolsonaro can be a good father? Or he is a fascist?
Haddad, the opposite candidate, try to play with these moral issues. In the campaign, there are who says: between an assassin and a thief, which one has minor penalty?
Other moral issue is related not with life and death, but with education. On one hand, Bolsonaro disagree to bring sexual issues to be discussed early in schools, as well as he is favor of a more strong role of the family in education. The presence of military in schools was a proposal made by him. Haddad prefers the opposite, considering his academic background he puts an emphases in the role of schools.
Furthermore, appears to be a common sense that minorities in a Bolsonaro’s government will be in a worst situation than if was in a government of Haddad. Quota policy is something that do not works well in a Bolsonaro’s government, nor politics specific for blacks, LGBT community, women.
Abortion and drugs are treated by Bolsonaro as crimes, as prohibition, and not as rights. What is the minimum age to be liable for a crime is an important issue for Bolsonaro, what reflects direct in the issue of drugs, because whom sell the drugs, many times, are minor in the criminal meaning. The Environment is also something that Bolsonaro gives a minor weight than the agriculture business. And these two areas has a deep connection with the Health sector. By the other side, Haddad prefer maintain a separation among the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Environment. For this candidate, drugs are more a problem of health than a problem of police. This candidate is more at the side of school than the side of physical imprisonment.
By one hand, Bolsonaro is in favor, according his promises, of a not big State in Economy, but a strong State in the meaning of security and surveillance of citizens. Privatization is a key word in his Economic Policy. On the other hand, Haddad is closer to a bigger State, without privatizations, but also with a strong surveillance of citizens, that is a characteristic of the Age of E-governments.
Violence, sex, drugs, family, abortion, environment, economy: each candidate thinks in opposition of the other candidate.
Also is important pay attention in who is the vice-president of each side, in case of final absence of the main candidate, such as happened with the present government of Michel Temer – which one is the vice-president that became president with the impeachment of Dilma Roussef. It is important to know who is around the presidential power.
At the end of the day, Brazil have two very different ways to choose. But Brazil have the real power to choose? Or are external forces that choose for the Brazilians? Again: who controls the social media? How closer is Trump to Bolsonaro? Is Bolsonaro the “Tropical Trump”?
Jair Bolsonaro by him-self, almost 20 years ago, express in an video-recorded interview that: the Legislative Houses do not serves for anything in Brazil (5:40), that the Judiciary is not independent (5:55), that the big media is not independent (6:57), that the Judiciary need to be more efficient (7:28), that need to exist more taxes for who have more money (8:42), that Fernando Henrique Cardoso was terrible as President (11:15), that everyone need to get the chance to prove innocence (12:38), that External Control is need for Judiciary (16:54), that do not pay tax in Brazil is self-defense (16:37), that is need to review the role of Central Bank (15:46), that the corruption the militar regime in Brazil, in the 60 decade and after was minor (15:37), that he is favor to torture (15:02), that he votes in Lula because saw him as a honest person at that time (17:40), that some countries uses human rights to attack the sovereignty of others (19:22), that the voting system do not serves for anything (31:00).
Of course that there is a difference between words and actions, as well as between the past and the present. But these expressed thoughts can give us an overview of whom is Bolsonaro – or not?
In the same meaning, we can take a look in the recent words of his son, elected as Federal Deputy, Eduardo Bolsonaro. Recently he expressed that Brazilian Supreme Court of Brazil can be closed, what after he ask for excuses. Additionally, there are other two sons of Jair Bolsonaro in politics.
And Haddad? Well, everyone is talking about Bolsonaro. Everyone thinks that he will be the next President in 2019.
But what we can say about Haddad? He is like a son for Lula, but appears that he do not grew up at the right time. He did not understud that this war is not concerning reason, but concerning emotions and technocracy. In other words, he, and his father, lost the timing to looking for external IT tech help. If we pay attention, it is possible to say that the internal sovereignty of Brazil is easily manipulated by external forces. And in this meaning, or you get foreign friends, or you die – simple as that.
Other point concerning Haddad is that he was Minister of Education by years in the Lula’s government. And the superior education in Brazil produced more debts for students than really knowledge. You want a bachelor’s degree? Ok, but you will get a considerable debt. And after, you will need to do what is necessary to pay it, observing that the offer of employment did not corresponds with the offer of university diplomas.
If we observes each one, in a very animal and basic meaning, seems that Haddad have afraid of Bolsonaro. But further than this, the central point still the mass media control on the Brazilian people made by foreign forces. Until this problem is solved, will be ease produce a fake individualism, by which the actions of individuals are not actions produced by himself, but by soft and sophisticated external manipulation.
And an final point is: if the far-right get the power at 28th October, as everyone here in Brazil believes that will happens (note that I said believe because in Brazil everything can happens), then will be necessary educate the rightists to direct their strong energy in a more efficient and fair way.
23th October 2018
Rafael De Conti, Brazilian lawyer and philosopher