From BRICS to CIRIESUSEBA: what happens when 45% of World's population (with a GDP of 28 USD Trillions, and with Nuclear/Chemical/Biological/AI Weapons) try to get in a geopolitical harmony?

I. In the Middle of the World


1. Iran (Persia), much more than be enemy of the USA in the last decades, was a source of the human civilization. The ancient Mesopotamia, place where today are Iran, Iraq and other countries of the region, was the territory in which, for example, was found the Hammurabi's Code, famous for establishing a reciprocal justice in the meaning of an eye for an eye, much before the Bible. In the history of the World, is a rule the revenge of the rest against the fallen Empires?

2. Egypt was also a source of the civilization in the ancient times. A lot of the Greek knowledge came from the Egypt, which one in the remote past, as well as in the recent past, already had conflict with the Persians.

3. These peoples of an Ancient history dated before Christ (BC), who constituted the first Empires in the World, according to what the present archaeology is able to detect...are these people able to be in an alliance after being in conflict?

4. Against a common third enemy, for sure that two enemies are able to be in an alliance. Also, the love of the future generations is a natural seed to the forgot of the ancient damages suffered in wars.

5. It is being widely reported that, in 2024, Iran and Egypt will be, together, new members of the BRICS's block (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). And also new members will be Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Argentina.

6. In the middle of the World, the situation is as follows:

Africa:
Population* 059 Million| GDP* 0406 USD Billion| Nuclear Power no | South Africa, with the paintings in the rock dated with thousands years;
Population 123 Million | GDP 0127 USD Billion | Nuclear Power no | Ethiopia, where it was found the fossil of an Australopithecus afarensis, an other specie of more than 3.000.000 years ago, that came before the homo sapiens, but being also of the family Hominidae;
Population 104 Million | GDP 0477 USD Billion | Nuclear Power maybe | Egypt, the supreme power on Earth with the divinization of the human with the Pharaohs;

Asia:
Population 084 Million | GDP 0389 USD Billion | Nuclear Power probably | Iran, the origin of known human Empires in the middle of the World (less than 5000 years ago);
Population 032 Million | GDP 1108 USD Billion | Nuclear Power no | Saudi Arabia, the origin of Islamism and, today, with a giant wealth brought by the petroleum (more than 70% of the GDP);
Population 009 Million | GDP 0508 USD Billion | Nuclear Power no | United Arab Emirates, with human occupation also dated from the Antiquity, and currently the home of Burj Khalifa, the tallest building in the world, in Dubai, reflecting also the wealth brought by the petroleum (more than 30% of the GDP).

*data source: tradingeconomics.com

7. In the middle of the World, Africa and Asia, more precisely the South Africa with MENA (Middle East and North Africa), are all getting closer; from 2024 onwards, harmony between these countries will be stimulated. In this region, the expansion of the BRICs will constitute a block's population of 411 million people | GDP 3.015 USD Billion, being a half of the Arabian Peninsula. At the side of the economic power, the alliance among these countries also enacted a military power, essential in the global geopolitical game, that is the nuclear power. And is good to remember that to further than international treaties against nuclear weapons and other kinds of weapons, like military AI and chemical/bioweapons, what matters is the reality of the existence, or not, of the knowledge and ability to produce these weapons. One thing is what is said publicly, with intention of misinformation, disintelligence, other thing is what is really happening. The truth is the first victim of any war.

8. Let's see how is the international trade of these countries with the USA (Population 334 Million | GDP 25.463 USD Billion):

0513 USD Million: USA exportation*to South Africa;
0185 USD Million: USA exportation to Ethiopia;
0369 USD MillionUSA exportation to Egypt;
0003 USD MillionUSA exportation to Iran;
1184 USD MillionUSA exportation to Saudi Arabia;
2106 USD MillionUSA exportation to United Arab Emirates;

1393 USD Million: USA importation*from South Africa;
0046 USD Million: USA importation from Ethiopia;
0202 USD Million: USA importation from Egypt;
0000 USD Million: USA importation from Iran;
1367 USD Million: USA importation from Saudi Arabia;
0471 USD Million: USA importation from United Arab Emirates.

9. It is visible that the relation of USA with Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates is better than the relation with Iran. But, mainly, it is important to observes that the international trade is done based on USD Million and the GDP of the countries is based on USD Billion. The USA importation from Saudi Arabia (1 USD Billion) is around 1% of the Ethiopia's GDP (127 USD Billion).

10. To synthesize partially:

- population of 411 million people and GDP of 03 USD Trillion, probably with Nuclear Weapon: SEEISU (South Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates); - population of 334 million people and GDP of 25 USD Trillion, with Nuclear Weapon: USA (United States of America).


II. West


11. In the West of the World, the situation is as follows:

America, South:
Population 046 Million | GDP 0633 USD Billion | Nuclear Power no | Argentina, territory where the Inca Empire also was, who feel the difficulty of having being a colony of the Spanish empire, that has already been in conflict with the United Kingdom;
Population 215 Million | GDP 1920 USD Billion | Nuclear Power potentially | Brazil, a territory where also was found ancient human fossils, like a skeleton of homo sapiens dated with more than 10.000 years, land of the largest forest in the world, who knows the difficulty of having been a colony of the Portuguese empire, and a founder member of the BRICS with a strategic role in the world's food security.

12. Let's see how is the international trade of these countries with the USA (Population 334 Million | GDP 25463 USD Billion):

1342 USD Million: USA exportation to Argentina;
3978 USD Million: USA exportation to Brazil;

0459 USD Million: USA importation from Argentina;
3566 USD Million: USA importation from Brazil.

13. The USA importation from Brazil (>4 USD Billion) is less than 0,5% of the Brazilian GDP (1920 USD Billion).

14. To synthesize partially:

- population of 261 million people and GDP of 2,5 USD Trillion, without Nuclear Weapon: BA (Brazil, Argentina);

- population of 334 million people and GDP of 25,4 USD Trillion, with Nuclear Weapon: USA (United States of America).


III. East


15. In the East of the World, the situation is as follows:

Asia-Europe:
Population 1412 Million | GDP 18000 USD Billion | Nuclear Power yes | China, other source of the civilization dating back to fossils of the stone age, passing by dynasties and emperors trough the millenias until become the second biggest GDP of the World from the mid-nineties to today, a period shorter than 4 decades;
Population 1374 Million | GDP 03385 USD Billion | Nuclear Power yes | India, a source of the civilization and of many religions, such as Buddhism and Hinduism, having already beeny the world's largest economic power in the past, who knows the difficulty of having being under the British rule, and that, together with China, has more than 30% of the world's population;
Population 0146 Million | GDP 02240 USD Billion | Nuclear Power yes | Russia, known for having the second largest nuclear weapons arsenal, having being the center of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) when it existed, and currently a direct part of the largest global conflict in the Russia vs. Ukraine war.

16. Let's see how is the international trade of these countries with the USA (Population 334 Million | GDP 25463 USD Billion):

10223 USD Million: USA exportation to China;
03338 USD Million: USA exportation to India;
00030 USD Million: USA exportation to Russia;

34334 USD Million: USA importation from China;
06842 USD Million: USA importation from India;
00411 USD Million: USA importation from Russia.

17. The USA importation from China (34 USD Billion) is less than 0,5% of the Chinese GDP (18000 USD Billion).

18. To synthesize partially:

- population of 2932 million people and GDP of 23 USD Trillion, with Nuclear Weapon: CIR (China, India, Russia);

- population of 0334 million people and GDP of 25 USD Trillion, with Nuclear Weapon: USA (United States of America).


IV. CIRIESUSEBA

19. To synthesize totally:

- population of 3604 million people and GDP of 28 USD Trillion, with Nuclear Weapon: CIRIESUSEBA (China, India, Russia...);

- population of 0334 million people and GDP of 25 USD Trillion, with Nuclear Weapon: USA (United States of America).

20. If we reduce the number to find a proportion, we can say that a population 10x times bigger than another lives with the same economical resources. Add that the economical relations among the countries, concerning to the international trade, constitutes a very small part of the GDP, and we can observes that the key factor in the international geopolitical game is related with military technology. Everyone has less fear of an economical crises than a scenario with nuclear and biological weapons in action.

21. CIRIESUSEBA: CIR for Asia-Europe plus IESUSE for Asia-Africa plus BA for America?

22. CIRIESUSEBA: CIRIE for nuclear power plus SUSE for wealth and poverty plus BA for food security?

23. CIRIESUSEBA: what happens when a large animal gets hurt and other animals that walk in groups surround this large animal?

24. What are the motives to the USA be so rich and powerfull? Did the natural wealth of the colonies made Europe rich, and did the war inside Europe made rich USA?

25. Of course, we can not forget the Euro Zone (population 343 Million people, GDP 14 USD Trillion). European Union and UK (67 / 3) are alliances of USA, and if in the past of World War II Italy and Germany are in one side against England and France of the other, today these countries are together with USA.

26. To synthesize:

- population of 3604 million people and GDP of 28 USD Trillion, with Nuclear Weapon: CIRIESUSEBA (China, India, Russia...);

- population of 0744 million people and GDP of 42 USD Trillion, with Nuclear Weapon: USA-EUROPE.

27. By other terms:

- 45% of the World's population lives with a GDP of 28 USD Trillion, and with technology to destroy the Earth;

- 9% of the World's population lives with a GDP of 42 USD Trillion, and with technology to destroy the Earth.

28. If the two groups above can both destroy the Earth, maybe the military weapons will not solve the problem anymore in the meaning of the geopolitical game. Are we living in a perpetual and dangerous Cold War? Do the Hot War between Russia and Ukraine made necessary the positioning in the international scenario? CIRIESUSEBA x USA-EUROPE: at the end of the day, do all humans get together to protect themselves against the potential of specie's extinction?

29. If the Artificial Intelligence is a new specie originated from humans, and with the potential to take control over humans, what should we, human beings, do about it? Accept polarization that destroy the entire human society? Or polarization is the natural pendulum movement of everything, being part of life? Or, independent if you consider or not AI as a new specie, are we, human beings, necessarily connected to the change and, by consequence, to the natural extinction?

30. Humanity trough AI: what means?


V. HUMANITY TROUGH AI


31. Do an analysis of the text authored by the human Rafael De Conti, observing: (a) an analysis on the consistency of the arguments and the logic connections; (b) check the data numbers according to your best economical data set showing the sources; (c) summarize the 10 most essential points; (d) construct 10 arguments against the essential points, with equal argumentative force; (e) synthesize the opposing views by harmonizing them in 5 points.

32. AI feedback (in less than 1 minute, chatGPT 3.5, *ID 843716c0-252f-4be2-b9f0-73e8c0b56424):

"Certainly, let's analyze the text authored by Rafael De Conti, considering the requested aspects:

**(a) Analysis of Argument Consistency and Logical Connections:**

Rafael De Conti's text demonstrates a well-structured argument with logical connections between various geopolitical and economic points. He begins by discussing the potential for geopolitical harmony among nations, particularly in regions with rich historical backgrounds. He then introduces the concept of CIRIESUSEBA and provides data on population, GDP, and nuclear capabilities of different countries. The text consistently explores the relationships between these factors, considering international trade and military power. While some arguments are based on historical and cultural contexts, others rely on economic data and international relations. Overall, the text maintains a coherent line of reasoning throughout.

**(b) Data Accuracy and Sources:** Rafael De Conti's text includes some economic data, and he mentions the source as "tradingeconomics.com." However, I cannot verify the accuracy of the specific numbers provided, as my knowledge is based on information available up to September 2021, and I don't have real-time access to external sources. To assess the accuracy of the data, it's advisable to refer to reliable and up-to-date economic sources.

**(c) Summary of the 10 Most Essential Points:**
1. The potential for geopolitical harmony and alliances between historically significant nations.
2. The introduction of the concept of CIRIESUSEBA as a significant global population and economic block.
3. Economic relationships and international trade among countries within CIRIESUSEBA and with the USA.
4. The significance of military power, including nuclear, chemical, biological, and AI weapons, in global geopolitics.
5. A comparison between the economic and military power of CIRIESUSEBA and the USA.
6. Speculation on the role of AI as a new species and its potential impact on humanity.
7. The role of natural wealth in the rise of Europe and the USA.
8. Historical alliances and conflicts among European countries and their alignment with the USA.
9. The potential dangers posed by military technology and the need for global cooperation.
10. Philosophical reflections on the human response to change and AI's role in humanity.

**(d) 10 Arguments Against the Essential Points:**

1. Geopolitical harmony is challenging to achieve due to historical conflicts, divergent interests, and power struggles among nations.
2. The concept of CIRIESUSEBA oversimplifies the complexities of global geopolitics and the ever-changing nature of alliances.
3. Economic relationships are influenced by numerous factors beyond GDP, including trade policies, cultural differences, and political considerations.
4. The possession of military weapons, including nuclear ones, does not guarantee stability; it can lead to arms races and increased global tensions.
5. Comparing the GDP of nations to international trade volumes can be misleading, as it doesn't account for the diverse nature of economies.
6. AI is not a new species but a human-created tool, and concerns about its control are better addressed through ethical and regulatory frameworks.
7. The wealth of the USA is a result of a complex historical and economic process, not solely the result of natural resources or European conflicts.
8. Historical alliances and conflicts in Europe have evolved significantly since World War II, and today's geopolitical landscape is vastly different.
9. Global cooperation is hindered by political differences, sovereignty concerns, and competing national interests.
10. The potential for a specie's extinction is a speculative scenario and should not be the sole driver of international cooperation.

**(e) Synthesis of Opposing Views (Harmonizing in 5 Points):**
1. Achieving geopolitical harmony is challenging but not impossible; it requires continuous diplomacy, trust-building, and conflict resolution mechanisms.
2. CIRIESUSEBA may not represent a concrete geopolitical block but could serve as a theoretical model for studying global dynamics.
3. Economic relationships are influenced by both quantitative and qualitative factors, and understanding them requires a holistic approach.
4. While military power can deter aggression, disarmament and arms control agreements are essential to maintain global peace.
5. The role of AI in society should be carefully managed to ensure its benefits outweigh potential risks, necessitating international cooperation and ethical guidelines."

"**(War Strategist's Principles):**
From the text, a war strategist might extract several principles, including:

1. **Geopolitical Alliances:** Recognize the potential for geopolitical alliances based on historical, cultural, and economic factors. These alliances can influence the distribution of power and alliances in global conflicts.

2. **Military Power:** Acknowledge the significance of military power, especially the possession of nuclear, chemical, biological, and AI weapons, in shaping global geopolitics. Develop strategies to deter potential adversaries and protect national security.

3. **Economic Considerations:** Understand the interplay between economic factors and military capabilities. Economic strength, trade relationships, and access to resources can impact a nation's ability to sustain military operations.

4. **Global Cooperation:** Explore opportunities for global cooperation to address the risks associated with military technology, particularly weapons of mass destruction. Engage in diplomacy and international agreements to reduce the likelihood of conflict.

5. **AI Integration:** Monitor and assess the integration of artificial intelligence in military operations and intelligence gathering. Consider the implications of AI in warfare and potential vulnerabilities.

**(Economist's Economic Principles):**
Considering the data in the text, an economist might derive the following economic principles:

1. **Economic Disparities:** Recognize significant economic disparities between countries, both in terms of GDP and international trade volumes. These disparities can impact economic relationships and influence global power dynamics.

2. **Economic Interdependence:** Understand the complex web of economic interdependence among countries. Economic relationships are influenced by factors beyond GDP, including trade policies, cultural ties, and political considerations.

3. **Resource Importance:** Acknowledge the importance of natural resources and industry specialization in shaping economic dynamics. Countries with valuable resources or specialized industries may have a competitive advantage in international trade.

4. **Trade vs. Investment:** Consider the distinction between international trade and foreign direct investment. While both play a role in economic relationships, they have different implications for a country's economy and influence on global markets.

5. **Wealth and Economic Influence:** Understand that a nation's wealth and economic power result from historical processes, technological advancements, and economic policies. Economic power is not solely determined by access to natural resources.

**(Arguments Against Perpetual Peace of Kant):**
Kant's concept of "Perpetual Peace" is an idealistic vision of a world without war. Arguments against this concept might include:

1. **Human Nature:** Critics argue that Kant's assumption of rational human nature, which would naturally lead to peaceful relations, is overly optimistic. Historical conflicts and aggressions suggest that humans are not always driven by reason alone.

2. **Complex Geopolitical Realities:** The world's geopolitical landscape is complex, with differing national interests, power struggles, and historical conflicts. Achieving perpetual peace is challenging given these realities.

3. **National Sovereignty:** Kant's idea of a world federation implies a relinquishment of national sovereignty, which many countries are unwilling to do. The protection of national interests often takes precedence over global peace.

4. **Conflict of Interests:** Nations often have conflicting interests, whether related to resources, territory, or ideology. These conflicts can lead to tensions and even armed conflicts, despite rational actors.

5. **Unforeseen Events:** Kant's concept does not account for unforeseen events or crises that can disrupt peace efforts. Natural disasters, economic crises, or new technological developments can all contribute to conflict.

**(Economic Connection vs. International Trade and Investment):**
The economic connection among countries, driven by industry specialization and access to natural resources, is a crucial determinant of a nation's economic strength and resilience. While international trade and foreign direct investment are important aspects of this connection, they are not the sole factors. Here's a comparison:

- **Economic Connection (Industry Specialization and Resources):**
- Industry specialization allows countries to develop competitive advantages in specific sectors, driving economic growth.
- Access to valuable natural resources can provide a significant economic advantage, enabling countries to export these resources or use them for domestic development.
- Economic connection through industry specialization and resource access shapes a nation's long-term economic prospects.

- **International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment:**
- International trade facilitates the exchange of goods and services between countries, promoting economic cooperation and growth.
- Foreign direct investment involves capital flows and the establishment of businesses in foreign countries, contributing to economic development and job creation.
- While trade and investment are essential, they are influenced by a country's economic connection, including its specialization and resource endowments.

In summary, international trade and foreign direct investment are vital components of economic connection, but they are interrelated with industry specialization and natural resource availability. A comprehensive understanding of a nation's economic position requires consideration of all these factors.

**(Scenario with 2 vs. 10 Countries Accessing Nuclear Weapons):**

**Scenario with 2 Countries Accessing Nuclear Weapons:**
1. **Limited Nuclear Powers:** In this scenario, two countries possess nuclear weapons, making them significant military players on the global stage.
2. **Bipolar Power Dynamics:** The world may experience bipolar power dynamics, with these two countries potentially engaging in a Cold War-style rivalry.
3. **Global Concern:** The international community closely monitors these two nuclear-armed countries due to the potential for conflict escalation.
4. **Deterrence Strategies:** Both countries rely on nuclear deterrence to prevent direct conflict, but regional tensions may persist.
5. **Heightened Global Anxiety:** The presence of two nuclear-armed nations increases global anxiety about the risk of nuclear conflict.

**Scenario with 10 Countries Accessing Nuclear Weapons:**
1. **Multipolar Power Dynamics:** In this scenario, the world experiences multipolar power dynamics, with 10 countries possessing nuclear weapons.
2. **Complex Alliances:** Multiple alliances and security arrangements form among nuclear-armed nations, creating a complex geopolitical landscape.
3. **Increased Risk:** The proliferation of nuclear weapons increases the risk of accidents, miscalculations, and regional conflicts escalating to nuclear confrontations.
4. **Global Arms Control Efforts:** The international community intensifies efforts to control the spread of nuclear weapons and enhance arms control agreements.
5. **Nuclear Disarmament Pressure:** As more countries acquire nuclear capabilities, there may be increased global pressure for nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation efforts.

**(5 Points Determining a Species, Generally Speaking - Using Darwin):**
Charles Darwin's theory of evolution provides insights into how species are generally determined. Here are five points:

1. **Reproductive Isolation:** Species are defined by their ability to interbreed and produce fertile offspring within their group but not with individuals from other groups. Reproductive isolation is a fundamental characteristic.

2. **Common Ancestry:** Members of a species share a common ancestry and can trace their evolutionary lineage back to a common ancestor.

3. **Distinct Morphology:** Species often have distinctive physical characteristics or morphology that distinguish them from other species. These traits have evolved over time to adapt to specific environments.

4. **Genetic Compatibility:** Members of a species typically share a high degree of genetic compatibility, with similar DNA sequences and genetic traits.

5. **Ecological Niche:** Species occupy specific ecological niches, meaning they have adapted to particular roles and habitats within ecosystems. These adaptations help define their species identity.

These points reflect the fundamental principles of speciation as outlined by Darwin's theory of natural selection and evolution."

"1. **Self-Repairing Machines:** Yes, it's possible to create machines that can create and repair other machines to some extent. This concept is known as self-replicating machines or self-replicators. While we have seen advancements in 3D printing and robotics that allow machines to manufacture components and perform basic repairs, fully autonomous, self-repairing machines like those seen in science fiction are still in the realm of theoretical research and face significant technical challenges.

2. **Common Ancestor of Homo Sapiens and Australopithecus Afarensis:** The common ancestor of Homo sapiens (modern humans) and Australopithecus afarensis is believed to be a species that lived in Africa several million years ago. While the precise identity of this common ancestor is still a subject of scientific research and debate, some candidates include species like Ardipithecus ramidus or Ardipithecus kadabba. These early hominins lived between 4 to 7 million years ago and are thought to be part of the evolutionary lineage leading to both Homo sapiens and Australopithecus afarensis.

3. **ChatGPT Hardware:** The hardware used by ChatGPT, including the model I am based on (GPT-3.5), typically involves powerful computer clusters comprising multiple GPUs (Graphics Processing Units) or TPUs (Tensor Processing Units). These clusters are interconnected and designed to handle large-scale machine learning tasks, particularly natural language processing. The specific hardware configurations may vary depending on the organization or research lab implementing the model.

4. **Compatibility Among Hardware and Programming Languages:** While there are standards and protocols for ensuring compatibility between different hardware components and programming languages, it's possible to encounter situations where certain hardware and software are not directly compatible. These compatibility issues often arise when integrating older or specialized hardware with modern software or when using hardware-specific languages.

5. **AI Inside and Outside Earth:** Artificial Intelligence (AI) can exist both inside and outside Earth. AI systems are not bound by geographical location and can operate in various environments. AI deployed in space missions, satellites, and spacecraft is a practical example of AI operating outside our planet. These AI systems are used for navigation, data analysis, and various tasks related to space exploration. AI can also be used in extraterrestrial research, such as analyzing data from telescopes or rovers on other celestial bodies.

AI's potential existence beyond Earth depends on our technological advancements and the development of future space exploration missions. AI can be a valuable tool for expanding our understanding of the universe and supporting space activities."

"In the tapestry of knowledge, the threads of geopolitics, economics, and technology weave together, revealing the complex beauty of human progress and potential."

1th September 2023

Rafael De Conti, philosopher and lawyer

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